Québec

Québec City: low unemployment, falling employment

Québec City's headline labour figure is the best in the group: unemployment was 4.5% in October 2026, the lowest of the eight metropolitan areas and little changed from 4.4% a year earlier. Yet employment changed -5.3% against a year earlier, the second-largest fall, and the employment rate of 63.4% is below the group's middle.

The two figures can both be right when people leave the labour force, since the unemployment rate counts only those looking for work, or when sampling error affects the employment count. The survey points to the first: over the same twelve months the participation rate fell from 69.8% to 66.4%. Whether that fall in the labour force is real or partly sampling error, the data cannot say. A reader using Québec City's low unemployment rate as a sign of a tight market should hold it alongside the fall in employment.

Building and prices

Housing is where Québec City stands out. Builders began 1,385 homes in September 2026, the most of the eight, and 11,516 homes were under construction, 12.7 per 1,000 residents, fifth of the fourteen. In the twelve months to September 2026 new-home prices rose 1.9%, second only to Winnipeg's 2.1%, and consumer prices 3.3%, a little above the national 3.1%. Housing starts in a single month are volatile.

People and output

The population grew 1.0% in the year to July 2025. Immigrants numbered 8,471, net non-permanent residents changed -757 and net interprovincial migration was 400, a small gain.

Gross domestic product at basic prices was C$59.0 billion in 2022, the largest of the eight, up 31.3% in five years in current dollars.

What it means for decisions

For an employer, the unemployment rate suggests hiring is competitive while the employment count suggests otherwise; wait for the next releases before deciding. For a builder, Québec City is building a lot while new-home prices rise.

What the data cannot say: they do not explain the gap between unemployment and employment, nor give wages or resale prices. Nothing here is a forecast.

1. Jobs: 478 thousand people are employed, -5.3% against a year ago; unemployment is 4.5%. The employment rate, 63.4%, is 6th of 8 among the eight metropolitan areas in this group. Labour

2. Prices: inflation is 3.3%, against 3.1% for Canada. The city index is held here for all items only. Prices

3. People: the population changed 1.0% in the year to July 2025. Net non-permanent residents changed -757 in the latest demographic year. Population

4. Housing: new-home prices changed +1.9% in the twelve months to September 2026, with 11,516 homes under construction. Housing

5. Output: the economy produced C$59.0 billion in 2022. Output The industry mix from the 2021 Census is in Industry.

6. Connections: the links that reach Québec City are national or provincial, and none is measured for the city. Connections

What happened

At basic prices and in current dollars, the Québec City economy produced C$59.0 billion of output in 2022, the latest reference year in Statistics Canada's table. Measured in current dollars, output was 78.6% higher in 2022 than in 2009 and 21.6% higher than in 2019. Over the same period since 2009 Halifax grew 74.4%, Calgary 72.4%, Edmonton 54.6%, Toronto 85.0%, Vancouver 98.1% and Montréal 75.3%. Quebec's real GDP was 11.8% higher in 2025 than in 2019; that is a different measure (market prices at 2017 constant prices, province) and is not comparable with the metropolitan current-dollar figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table is in current dollars, so these changes include price increases, and it is not divided by population, so the figures do not separate growth in the number of people from growth in output per person. This section reports the data; attributed explanations of the differences are in the economic story and local-economy sections of this page.

Why it matters

GDP at basic prices is the broadest measure of local production that Statistics Canada publishes for metropolitan areas. It shows how large the local economy is, but not who earns the income, what is produced, or how the economy is doing now.

History

The series starts in 2009 and ends in 2022. A fall in output in any year in between would show in the chart; no year-by-year explanation is offered here.

Across geographies

The metropolitan series are comparable with each other because they come from one table with one definition and one price basis. Levels depend on city size; use growth rates for comparison.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links metropolitan output to another variable.

Risks

The table ends in 2022 and describes nothing since; it cannot show the effects of recent changes in interest rates, trade policy, population or commodity prices on Québec City.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next release of table 36-10-0468-01. No release date for it is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

Québec City's unemployment rate was 4.5% in October 2026, against a ten-year low of 2.0% in March 2023. Employment (a three-month average) was 478 thousand, against a ten-year high of 520 thousand in February 2026 and -5.3% on a year earlier. Housing starts over the past twelve months were 9,293, with 11,516 homes under construction. In the October 2025 survey the average two-bedroom purpose-built rent was C$1,276 a month and the vacancy rate 2.4%, from 0.9% a year earlier. The net change in non-permanent residents was -757 in the latest demographic year.

Why it happened

In the 2021 Census, public administration accounted for 14.2% of the jobs located in the metropolitan area, finance and insurance for 6.2% and manufacturing for 7.5%.

Why it matters

History

Across geographies

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

The provincial public-service reductions that the March 2026 expenditure budget set for March 2027, the monthly metropolitan labour data, the 2027 TramCité target price and timetable, the first Des Neiges sector coming into service in 2027, and CMHC's October survey of rents and vacancy. Forecasts above are the publishers', not Northline's.

What happened

Québec City's unemployment rate was 4.5% in October 2026 and employment (a three-month average) was 478 thousand, -5.3% on a year earlier; the employment rate was 63.4% and the participation rate 66.4% (Statistics Canada, metropolitan area). The metropolitan population was 904 thousand on 1 July 2025, up 12.2% over ten years, while the net change in non-permanent residents in the latest demographic year was -757, against 11 thousand the year before.

Why it happened

What Québec City does for a living, by the 2021 Census, was health care and social assistance first, then public administration and retail, followed by professional services, education and manufacturing. Public administration accounted for 14.2% of jobs located in the area, against 11.8% in Halifax; finance and insurance for 6.2%, against 5.9% in Halifax; and manufacturing for 7.5%, against 5.0% (396 thousand jobs in all, counted at the workplace in May 2021 under public-health restrictions).

Why it matters

Annual Labour Force Survey estimates for the metropolitan area (table 14-10-0468-01, annual averages, not seasonally adjusted) put average employment at 493 thousand in 2025, 3.8% on the year before and 7.3% since 2019. Construction employment was 33 thousand, up 19.0% on 2024 and 39.9% on 2019. Health care and social assistance rose 10.7% to 76 thousand, educational services 8.8% to 41 thousand and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing 11.6% to 42 thousand.

Several industries went the other way in 2025. Professional, scientific and technical services fell 13.0% to 39 thousand, manufacturing fell 6.5% to 35 thousand and public administration fell 4.3% to 52 thousand. Accommodation and food services, at 26 thousand, are -16.0% on 2019, the weakest long-run change of the larger industries.

History

The Census shares above date from 2021. Since then the metropolitan population has risen, and Statistics Canada's components of population change show how: immigrants to the area were 8,471 in the latest demographic year, against 7,188 a year earlier, and net migration from elsewhere in Quebec was 1,082 against 1,763.

Across geographies

Québec City's October two-bedroom rent of C$1,276 ranks 14th of 14 among the cities tracked (first is the highest rent), against C$1,346 in Montréal and C$1,828 in Halifax, and its vacancy rate of 2.4% compares with 2.9% in Montréal and 2.6% in Halifax.

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

The 2027 TramCité target price and timetable; whether the Transport ministry gives a new date for the Île d'Orléans bridge; the autumn Rental Market Survey against CMHC's forecast of rising vacancy; provincial public-service staffing as the March 2027 target nears; construction of the six program icebreakers after the design phase; and Statistics Canada's next demographic estimates for the metropolitan area's non-permanent residents. Not held here: Québec City metropolitan wages, GDP by industry or after 2022, the largest employers, a current Ville de Québec economic profile and figures for the size of the optics-photonics cluster.

What happened

Québec City's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (three-month average) was 4.5% in October 2026, from 4.4% a year earlier. For comparison, Halifax's was 5.4%; among the six large metropolitan areas: Calgary's 6.6%, Edmonton's 7.1%, Toronto's 7.1%, Vancouver's 6.7%, Montréal's 6.9%, Ottawa–Gatineau's 7.1%. Employment of 478 thousand changed -5.3% over the year, against 6.2% in Calgary, 1.9% in Toronto and 1.2% in Vancouver.

The participation rate is 66.4% and the employment rate 63.4%, against 66.7% in Calgary, 62.2% in Toronto and 63.4% in Vancouver. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here (Winnipeg, Halifax, Québec, Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Saskatoon, Regina) its employment rate ranks 6th of 8.

By industry, Statistics Canada's annual Labour Force Survey estimates (table 14-10-0468-01, annual averages, not seasonally adjusted) put average employment in Québec City at 493 thousand in 2025, a change of 3.8% on the year before and of 7.3% since 2019. Goods-producing industries account for 14.8% of employed persons and services-producing industries for 85.2%; among the individual groups, health care and social assistance 15.5%, wholesale and retail trade 14.9% and manufacturing 7.1% of employment. The table counts people by the industry of their main job and by where they live, so it is a measure of employment, not of output, wages or the number of businesses. Estimates for a single industry group in one metropolitan area come from a small survey sample and are less steady than the total: Statistics Canada suppresses some cells, and the table is annual, so a one-year move in a small group should not be read as a trend. No sampling-error range is held with these series, so none is quoted. Wages for the metropolitan area are not held here; the Statistics Canada wage tables used cover provinces and Canada.

Why it happened

The data show where Québec City stands, not why. Since the end of 2019 employment has changed 7.1% in Québec City, 24.1% in Halifax, 27.1% in Calgary and 10.9% in Toronto; the data held here cannot say why those paths differ.

Why it matters

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand. The employment rate says more than the unemployment rate about how much of the adult population is working, because people who stop looking for work leave the unemployment count.

History

Over ten years Québec City's unemployment rate has averaged 3.9%, with a high of 12.6% in May 2020 and a low of 2.0% in March 2023. The Labour Force Survey series for the metropolitan area start in 2011 for employment and participation (earlier months are not held).

Across geographies

Québec City's rate minus Halifax's is -0.9 percentage points. As context, on a different definition (monthly, province-wide), Quebec's unemployment rate is 5.7% and Canada's 6.7%; these must not be read against the metropolitan three-month averages.

What it influences

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand in the region. No link from Québec City's employment to another variable is measured here.

Risks

Not assessed: the exposure of Québec City's employment to particular industries or to US demand over time, beyond what the annual industry employment shown above describes; that table does not measure exposure to US demand.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (release dates in the calendar).

What happened

Québec City's consumer prices were 3.3% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier (from 3.5% a year before), against 5.4% in Halifax, 3.4% in Calgary, 2.1% in Toronto and 3.0% in Vancouver, and 3.1% for Canada.

Why it happened

Why it matters

The CPI measures changes in prices, not their level, so a rate of change says nothing about how expensive the city is. A rate that is falling or rising against its own recent past tells more than a comparison with one other city: a year earlier Québec City's rate was 3.5%. Because the index covers all items together, it cannot show whether housing, food or energy explains a difference.

History

Québec City's rate has averaged 2.7% over ten years and peaked at 7.4% in June 2022.

Across geographies

Québec City's rate minus Canada's is 0.2 percentage points, and minus Halifax's is -2.1 percentage points.

What it influences

Inflation bears on wage bargaining, the policy rate and mortgage renewals; those links are national and not measured for the city.

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to Québec City specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; the national risks are energy prices and tariffs (see the Canada report).

What to watch

Statistics Canada's monthly Consumer Price Index release (calendar).

What happened

The Québec City metropolitan area had 904 thousand residents on July 1, 2025, 1.0% more than a year earlier. Over five years it grew 7.5%, against 15.0% in Halifax, 20.1% in Calgary and 9.5% in Toronto. In the latest year the growth rates were 2.9% in Calgary, 3.1% in Edmonton, 0.0% in Toronto, 0.2% in Vancouver and 0.5% in Montréal. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here it ranks 2nd of 8 by population.

Why it happened

In the demographic year that began in July 2024, the Québec City metropolitan area recorded 8,175 births and 7,955 deaths, 8,471 immigrants, a net change of -757 non-permanent residents, net interprovincial migration of 400 and net intraprovincial migration (movement to and from the rest of the province) of 1,082. The year before, immigrants numbered 7,188 and the net change in non-permanent residents was 11 thousand. Net non-permanent residents averaged 4,325 a year over the latest five demographic years.

Why it matters

Population growth adds workers and households. A fast-growing metropolitan area can need more housing, schools and services, and it also gains consumers. Over five years Québec City's growth was 7.5%.

History

Over ten years Québec City's population grew 12.2%, and since 2001 it has grown 27.4%. The components of change are available from 2001.

Across geographies

The provincial population grew 0.2% in the four quarters to 1 July 2026; net interprovincial migration for Quebec over the four quarters to Q2 2026 was -7,084. The metropolitan area's own net interprovincial migration is among the components above.

What it influences

Population growth bears on housing demand, labour supply and public service needs. Those links are national and not measured for the city.

Risks

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next annual metropolitan population estimates and quarterly provincial estimates.

What happened

Québec City started 9,293 homes over the past twelve months and completed 6,607. At the end of September 2026, 11,516 were under construction, 23.1% against a year earlier (Halifax 14,573, Toronto 88,108, Vancouver 61,680, Calgary 26,252).

The New Housing Price Index for Québec City is 144.2, 1.9% on a year ago and 17.0% since February 2022. Halifax's index changed 0.6% over the year, Vancouver's -2.1% and Toronto's -4.9%. Index levels are not comparable across cities because each is indexed to its own base.

The value of building permits (all types, seasonally adjusted, current dollars) over the twelve months to August 2026 was C$3.9 billion, +17.1% on the twelve months before; the series starts in 2018.

In the October 2025 Rental Market Survey the average rent for a two-bedroom unit in purpose-built rental structures of three or more units in Québec City was C$1,276 a month, 10.1% higher than a year earlier (CMHC's same-sample figure, for structures surveyed in both years, is 6.1%) and 41.8% higher than five years earlier, ranking 14th of 14 among fourteen cities (highest = 1); the same measure was C$1,908 in Calgary, C$2,045 in Toronto, C$2,364 in Vancouver. The vacancy rate was 2.4%, from 0.9% a year earlier, ranking 14th of 14 among the fourteen (against 4.9% in Calgary, 3.0% in Toronto, 3.7% in Vancouver). The table covers purpose-built rental structures only; condominium, house and basement-suite rentals, and the asking rents on new listings, are not in it.

Why it happened

The data show how much is being built and what is happening to new-home prices; they do not separate demand, land and construction costs, interest rates and incomes. Posted mortgage rates are national. Since the first week of January 2026 the posted five-year rate has changed by +0.10 percentage points and the posted one-year rate by -0.35 percentage points, to 6.19% and 5.49% in the week of 28 October 2026 (see the Canada report).

Why it matters

Housing is a large household expense. New-home prices are one part of the picture: resale prices are not included, and the rent figures above cover purpose-built rental structures only.

History

The monthly peak of units under construction in the past ten years was 11,516 in September 2026, and the lowest was 3,495 in March 2017.

Across geographies

On the comparison with the large cities, units under construction changed 23.1% in Québec City, 12.7% in Halifax, -4.2% in Toronto, -2.3% in Vancouver and 4.0% in Edmonton over the twelve months to September 2026. Counts depend on city size and are not rates per person.

What it influences

The Bank of Canada describes a link between mortgage costs and housing, and CMHC a link between supply and affordability; neither is estimated for Québec City.

Risks

What to watch

CMHC's monthly starts, Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index and building permits (release dates in the calendar), and the Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026.

What happened

In the 2021 Census, 396 thousand jobs were located in the Québec City metropolitan area (people who worked at home or had a usual workplace there; people with no fixed workplace address are not in the table). The three largest sectors were Health care and social assistance (16.3% of jobs), Public administration (14.2%) and Retail trade (11.5%).

Measured as its share of jobs divided by the six large metropolitan areas' combined share (among sectors that make up at least one fiftieth of Québec City's jobs), the sector in which Québec City stood furthest above them was Public administration: 14.2% of its jobs, against 4.2% in Calgary, 8.2% in Edmonton, 4.6% in Toronto, 4.9% in Vancouver, 5.3% in Montréal, 25.7% in Ottawa–Gatineau. The ranking is fixed to these 2021 Census figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table counts jobs by sector at one date and says nothing about why a metropolitan area has the mix it has. Attributed descriptions of Québec City's industry structure are in the local-economy section of this page.

Why it matters

The industry mix shows what a local economy does for a living, which bears on how it is exposed to changes in demand, prices and policy. It does not measure output, wages or how the economy is performing; those need other tables.

History

Not available from this table: the Census is taken every five years and the platform holds only the 2021 reference week (May 2021). Annual industry employment for the metropolitan area comes from the Labour Force Survey and is in the labour section of this page.

Across geographies

The metropolitan areas come from one table with one definition, so the shares can be compared with one another. They are not comparable with provincial Labour Force Survey industry shares, which use a different survey, year and definition. Quebec's provincial industry mix is on its province page.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links the metropolitan industry mix to another variable.

Risks

What to watch

The release of 2026 Census results on industry for metropolitan areas. No release date for them is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

The recorded connections that reach Québec City are provincial or national. Quebec's exposure to the United States is 72% of its goods exports in 2025 (total domestic goods exports C$117.6 billion), and energy products are 4% of that total; the national export shares in 2025 were 72% to the United States and 4.5% to China.

Oil prices and metropolitan employment are compared in the relationship graph only for Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto; Québec City is not compared.

Why it happened

Not assessed. Trade and investment links that published sources describe for Québec City are in the local-economy section of this page; no city-level trade data are held.

Why it matters

The currency, interest rates and trade partners that matter for Québec City are covered at national level in the Global report: one US dollar cost an average of C$1.4135 in October 2026; Canada's posted five-year mortgage rate was 6.19% in the week of 28 October 2026, and it rose 0.10 percentage points over the year to then. The US ten-year Treasury yield was 4.84% on 5 November 2026 and Canada's ten-year yield 3.67% on 5 November 2026; how much of any move in either reaches Québec City's housing market is not measured here.

History

Not assessed.

Across geographies

What it influences

Three chains bear on Québec City, each national or provincial: US trade measures to exports (hypotheses), rates to mortgage costs and housing (documented nationally) and immigration policy to population (documented nationally).

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to this city specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; beyond those, see the national risks in the Canada report and the global risks in the Global report.

What to watch

The Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026, tariff changes and Statistics Canada's monthly trade release (calendar).