Saskatoon

Saskatoon: the fastest-growing, with jobs lagging people

Saskatoon's population grew 2.4% in the year to July 2025, the fastest of the eight metropolitan areas in this group. Newcomers from abroad were prominent: immigrants numbered 7,011, 18.5 per 1,000 residents and second only to Regina's among the fourteen, and net non-permanent residents rose by 1,272, the largest gain of the eight. Net interprovincial migration was -1,717, a loss.

Jobs have not kept pace

The labour data run to a later month than the population data, so the two cannot be compared directly. They do point in different directions. Employment grew 0.5% in the twelve months to October 2026, fifth of the eight, and the unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.5%. The employment rate of 64.5% is fourth among the eight, so the labour market is not weak, but jobs have not risen as fast as the population did in the year before.

Housing and prices

At the end of September 2026, 4,373 homes were under construction, 11.6 per 1,000 residents, in the middle of the fourteen. In the year to September 2026 new-home prices rose 1.1% and consumer prices 3.1%, in line with the national 3.1%.

Gross domestic product at basic prices was C$26.5 billion in 2022, up 33.8% in five years in current dollars.

What it means for decisions

For an employer, the population grew quickly in the year to July 2025, which can ease hiring. For a builder or lender, the rapid population growth is the reason to look at supply. For anyone comparing with Regina, the two cities share the pattern of gains from abroad and losses to other provinces.

What the data cannot say: they do not give wages, rents on the whole housing stock or the sectors in which the new arrivals work. Nothing here is a forecast.

1. Jobs: 206 thousand people are employed, 0.5% against a year ago; unemployment is 5.9%. The employment rate, 64.5%, is 4th of 8 among the eight metropolitan areas in this group. Labour

2. Prices: inflation is 3.1%, against 3.1% for Canada. The city index is held here for all items only. Prices

3. People: the population changed 2.4% in the year to July 2025. Net non-permanent residents changed 1,272 in the latest demographic year. Population

4. Housing: new-home prices changed +1.1% in the twelve months to September 2026, with 4,373 homes under construction. Housing

5. Output: the economy produced C$26.5 billion in 2022. Output The industry mix from the 2021 Census is in Industry.

6. Connections: the links that reach Saskatoon are national or provincial, and none is measured for the city. Connections

What happened

At basic prices and in current dollars, the Saskatoon economy produced C$26.5 billion of output in 2022, the latest reference year in Statistics Canada's table. Measured in current dollars, output was 91.8% higher in 2022 than in 2009 and 28.2% higher than in 2019. Over the same period since 2009 Regina grew 83.1%, Calgary 72.4%, Edmonton 54.6%, Toronto 85.0%, Vancouver 98.1% and Montréal 75.3%. Saskatchewan's real GDP changed 11.6% between 2019 and 2025; that is a different measure (market prices at 2017 constant prices, province) and is not comparable with the metropolitan current-dollar figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table is in current dollars, so these changes include price increases, and it is not divided by population, so the figures do not separate growth in the number of people from growth in output per person. This section reports the data; attributed explanations of the differences are in the economic story and local-economy sections of this page.

Why it matters

GDP at basic prices is the broadest measure of local production that Statistics Canada publishes for metropolitan areas. It shows how large the local economy is, but not who earns the income, what is produced, or how the economy is doing now.

History

The series starts in 2009 and ends in 2022. A fall in output in any year in between would show in the chart; no year-by-year explanation is offered here.

Across geographies

The metropolitan series are comparable with each other because they come from one table with one definition and one price basis. Levels depend on city size; use growth rates for comparison.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links metropolitan output to another variable.

Risks

The table ends in 2022 and describes nothing since; it cannot show the effects of recent changes in interest rates, trade policy, population or commodity prices on Saskatoon.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next release of table 36-10-0468-01. No release date for it is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

Saskatoon's unemployment rate was 5.9% in October 2026 and employment was 206 thousand, 0.5% on a year earlier. The metropolitan population was 378 thousand on 1 July 2025, up 2.4% on the year and 15.3% on four years earlier. Housing starts in the twelve months to September 2026 were 3,952 units. In CMHC's October 2025 survey the average two-bedroom rent was C$1,559 and the vacancy rate was 3.1%, from 2.1% a year earlier. Consumer prices were 3.1% higher than a year earlier in September 2026.

Why it happened

Why it matters

The industry mix of the two largest Saskatchewan cities differs. In the 2021 Census public administration was 5.9% of jobs located in Saskatoon against 11.2% in Regina, finance and insurance 3.6% against 6.6%, and educational services 10.5% against 7.5%. Mining and quarrying was 2.2% of Saskatoon jobs and 0.9% of Regina's. These are workplace counts taken in May 2021 under public-health restrictions; none of the sources cited explains the gap, which this page leaves as an observation.

History

Across geographies

Three geographies are in play.

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

What happened

Annual average employment in the Saskatoon area was 205 thousand in 2025, 2.0% above 2024 and 20.7% above 2019 (Labour Force Survey, census metropolitan area). Of those jobs, goods-producing industries accounted for 39 thousand and services for 165 thousand. The unemployment rate (three-month average) was 5.9% in October 2026, against 5.9% in Regina and 5.0% in Winnipeg, and the metropolitan population was 378 thousand in 2025, up 15.3% in four years. The most recent metropolitan GDP at basic prices in current dollars was C$26.5 billion for 2022, up 21.3% on 2021; later years are not published in the series held here.

Why it happened

By the 2021 Census the largest industries by jobs located in the area were health care and social assistance (16.8%), retail trade (12.0%) and educational services (10.5%), followed by professional services (7.4%) and manufacturing (6.6%). Mining and quarrying accounted for 2.2% and agriculture for 2.0% (139 thousand jobs in all, counted at the workplace in May 2021 under public-health restrictions). Regina had a smaller share in education (7.5%) and a larger one in public administration (11.2%, against 5.9% in Saskatoon); the sources cited give no explanation for the difference.

Why it matters

Annual employment by industry in the metropolitan area (Labour Force Survey) moved unevenly. Educational services rose from 16.1 thousand in 2019 to 23.6 thousand in 2025, health care and social assistance from 25.4 thousand to 33.3 thousand, and public administration from 7,100 to 13 thousand. Construction employment was 16.6 thousand, against 14.1 thousand in 2019, and the forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas group 6,700 against 4,300. In 2025 professional, scientific and technical services fell from 17.9 thousand to 15.6 thousand, manufacturing from 13.0 thousand to 11.5 thousand, and wholesale and retail trade from 32.2 thousand to 30.6 thousand.

Investments and infrastructure

Funded commitments and proposals differ and are kept apart below.

History

The average two-bedroom rent in the CMHC October survey rose from C$1,112 in 2018 to C$1,559 in 2025, while the vacancy rate fell from 8.1% in 2018 to a low of 2.0% in 2023 before rising to 3.1%.

Across geographies

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

CMHC's autumn Rental Market Survey against its forecast vacancy rate for 2026; Statistics Canada's January demographic estimates for the metropolitan area; the Saskatchewan Research Council's rare earth plant against its early-2027 target; whether Council approves a funding plan for the downtown event district; Jansen's first production, scheduled by the province for 2027; the provincial crop and canola trade developments; and Signal49's next Saskatoon report. Not held here: Saskatoon-area wages, Statistics Canada metropolitan GDP by industry or after 2022, a ranking or headcount of the largest local employers, and a current outlook with data from the regional development authority (SREDA).

What happened

Saskatoon's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (three-month average) was 5.9% in October 2026, from 5.5% a year earlier. For comparison, Regina's was 5.9%; among the six large metropolitan areas: Calgary's 6.6%, Edmonton's 7.1%, Toronto's 7.1%, Vancouver's 6.7%, Montréal's 6.9%, Ottawa–Gatineau's 7.1%. Employment of 206 thousand changed 0.5% over the year, against 6.2% in Calgary, 1.9% in Toronto and 1.2% in Vancouver.

The participation rate is 68.6% and the employment rate 64.5%, against 66.7% in Calgary, 62.2% in Toronto and 63.4% in Vancouver. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here (Winnipeg, Halifax, Québec, Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Saskatoon, Regina) its employment rate ranks 4th of 8.

By industry, Statistics Canada's annual Labour Force Survey estimates (table 14-10-0468-01, annual averages, not seasonally adjusted) put average employment in Saskatoon at 205 thousand in 2025, a change of 2.0% on the year before and of 20.7% since 2019. Goods-producing industries account for 19.2% of employed persons and services-producing industries for 80.8%; among the individual groups, health care and social assistance 16.3%, wholesale and retail trade 14.9% and manufacturing 5.6% of employment. The table counts people by the industry of their main job and by where they live, so it is a measure of employment, not of output, wages or the number of businesses. Estimates for a single industry group in one metropolitan area come from a small survey sample and are less steady than the total: Statistics Canada suppresses some cells, and the table is annual, so a one-year move in a small group should not be read as a trend. No sampling-error range is held with these series, so none is quoted. Wages for the metropolitan area are not held here; the Statistics Canada wage tables used cover provinces and Canada.

Why it happened

The data show where Saskatoon stands, not why. Since the end of 2019 employment has changed 20.3% in Saskatoon, 17.4% in Regina, 27.1% in Calgary and 10.9% in Toronto; the data held here cannot say why those paths differ.

Why it matters

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand. The employment rate says more than the unemployment rate about how much of the adult population is working, because people who stop looking for work leave the unemployment count.

History

Over ten years Saskatoon's unemployment rate has averaged 6.3%, with a high of 13.8% in June 2020 and a low of 4.0% in November 2022. The Labour Force Survey series for the metropolitan area start in 2011 for employment and participation (earlier months are not held).

Across geographies

Saskatoon's rate minus Regina's is 0.0 percentage points. As context, on a different definition (monthly, province-wide), Saskatchewan's unemployment rate is 5.9% and Canada's 6.7%; these must not be read against the metropolitan three-month averages.

What it influences

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand in the region. No link from Saskatoon's employment to another variable is measured here.

Risks

Not assessed: the exposure of Saskatoon's employment to particular industries or to US demand over time, beyond what the annual industry employment shown above describes; that table does not measure exposure to US demand.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (release dates in the calendar).

What happened

Saskatoon's consumer prices were 3.1% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier (from 2.9% a year before), against 3.4% in Regina, 3.4% in Calgary, 2.1% in Toronto and 3.0% in Vancouver, and 3.1% for Canada.

Why it happened

Why it matters

The CPI measures changes in prices, not their level, so a rate of change says nothing about how expensive the city is. A rate that is falling or rising against its own recent past tells more than a comparison with one other city: a year earlier Saskatoon's rate was 2.9%. Because the index covers all items together, it cannot show whether housing, food or energy explains a difference.

History

Saskatoon's rate has averaged 2.6% over ten years and peaked at 8.1% in October 2022.

Across geographies

Saskatoon's rate minus Canada's is 0.0 percentage points, and minus Regina's is -0.3 percentage points.

What it influences

Inflation bears on wage bargaining, the policy rate and mortgage renewals; those links are national and not measured for the city.

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to Saskatoon specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; the national risks are energy prices and tariffs (see the Canada report).

What to watch

Statistics Canada's monthly Consumer Price Index release (calendar).

What happened

The Saskatoon metropolitan area had 378 thousand residents on July 1, 2025, 2.4% more than a year earlier. Over five years it grew 15.5%, against 13.0% in Regina, 20.1% in Calgary and 9.5% in Toronto. In the latest year the growth rates were 2.9% in Calgary, 3.1% in Edmonton, 0.0% in Toronto, 0.2% in Vancouver and 0.5% in Montréal. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here it ranks 7th of 8 by population.

Why it happened

In the demographic year that began in July 2024, the Saskatoon metropolitan area recorded 3,722 births and 2,524 deaths, 7,011 immigrants, a net change of 1,272 non-permanent residents, net interprovincial migration of -1,717 and net intraprovincial migration (movement to and from the rest of the province) of 1,253. The year before, immigrants numbered 10 thousand and the net change in non-permanent residents was 5,979. Net non-permanent residents averaged 2,567 a year over the latest five demographic years.

Why it matters

Population growth adds workers and households. A fast-growing metropolitan area can need more housing, schools and services, and it also gains consumers. Over five years Saskatoon's growth was 15.5%.

History

Over ten years Saskatoon's population grew 26.1%, and since 2001 it has grown 62.7%. The components of change are available from 2001.

Across geographies

The provincial population grew 1.0% in the four quarters to 1 July 2026; net interprovincial migration for Saskatchewan over the four quarters to Q2 2026 was -2,837. The metropolitan area's own net interprovincial migration is among the components above.

What it influences

Population growth bears on housing demand, labour supply and public service needs. Those links are national and not measured for the city.

Risks

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next annual metropolitan population estimates and quarterly provincial estimates.

What happened

Saskatoon started 3,952 homes over the past twelve months and completed 3,702. At the end of September 2026, 4,373 were under construction, 6.0% against a year earlier (Regina 2,087, Toronto 88,108, Vancouver 61,680, Calgary 26,252).

The New Housing Price Index for Saskatoon is 113.0, 1.1% on a year ago and 6.1% since February 2022. Regina's index changed 1.5% over the year, Vancouver's -2.1% and Toronto's -4.9%. Index levels are not comparable across cities because each is indexed to its own base.

The value of building permits (all types, seasonally adjusted, current dollars) over the twelve months to August 2026 was C$1.6 billion, +13.6% on the twelve months before; the series starts in 2018.

In the October 2025 Rental Market Survey the average rent for a two-bedroom unit in purpose-built rental structures of three or more units in Saskatoon was C$1,559 a month, 5.4% higher than a year earlier (CMHC's same-sample figure, for structures surveyed in both years, is 5.2%) and 33.6% higher than five years earlier, ranking 11th of 14 among fourteen cities (highest = 1); the same measure was C$1,908 in Calgary, C$2,045 in Toronto, C$2,364 in Vancouver. The vacancy rate was 3.1%, from 2.1% a year earlier, ranking joint 7th of 14 among the fourteen (against 3.1% in Ottawa–Gatineau, 4.9% in Calgary, 3.0% in Toronto, 3.7% in Vancouver). The table covers purpose-built rental structures only; condominium, house and basement-suite rentals, and the asking rents on new listings, are not in it.

Why it happened

The data show how much is being built and what is happening to new-home prices; they do not separate demand, land and construction costs, interest rates and incomes. Posted mortgage rates are national. Since the first week of January 2026 the posted five-year rate has changed by +0.10 percentage points and the posted one-year rate by -0.35 percentage points, to 6.19% and 5.49% in the week of 28 October 2026 (see the Canada report).

Why it matters

Housing is a large household expense. New-home prices are one part of the picture: resale prices are not included, and the rent figures above cover purpose-built rental structures only.

History

The monthly peak of units under construction in the past ten years was 4,874 in July 2026, and the lowest was 1,140 in May 2017.

Across geographies

On the comparison with the large cities, units under construction changed 6.0% in Saskatoon, 30.2% in Regina, -4.2% in Toronto, -2.3% in Vancouver and 4.0% in Edmonton over the twelve months to September 2026. Counts depend on city size and are not rates per person.

What it influences

The Bank of Canada describes a link between mortgage costs and housing, and CMHC a link between supply and affordability; neither is estimated for Saskatoon.

Risks

What to watch

CMHC's monthly starts, Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index and building permits (release dates in the calendar), and the Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026.

What happened

In the 2021 Census, 139 thousand jobs were located in the Saskatoon metropolitan area (people who worked at home or had a usual workplace there; people with no fixed workplace address are not in the table). The three largest sectors were Health care and social assistance (16.8% of jobs), Retail trade (12.0%) and Educational services (10.5%).

Measured as its share of jobs divided by the six large metropolitan areas' combined share (among sectors that make up at least one fiftieth of Saskatoon's jobs), the sector in which Saskatoon stood furthest above them was Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction: 2.2% of its jobs, against 4.8% in Calgary, 1.8% in Edmonton, 0.2% in Toronto, 0.3% in Vancouver, 0.2% in Montréal, 0.1% in Ottawa–Gatineau. The ranking is fixed to these 2021 Census figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table counts jobs by sector at one date and says nothing about why a metropolitan area has the mix it has. Attributed descriptions of Saskatoon's industry structure are in the local-economy section of this page.

Why it matters

The industry mix shows what a local economy does for a living, which bears on how it is exposed to changes in demand, prices and policy. It does not measure output, wages or how the economy is performing; those need other tables.

History

Not available from this table: the Census is taken every five years and the platform holds only the 2021 reference week (May 2021). Annual industry employment for the metropolitan area comes from the Labour Force Survey and is in the labour section of this page.

Across geographies

The metropolitan areas come from one table with one definition, so the shares can be compared with one another. They are not comparable with provincial Labour Force Survey industry shares, which use a different survey, year and definition. Saskatchewan's provincial industry mix is on its province page.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links the metropolitan industry mix to another variable.

Risks

What to watch

The release of 2026 Census results on industry for metropolitan areas. No release date for them is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

Most recorded connections that reach Saskatoon are provincial or national. Saskatchewan's exposure to the United States is 54% of its goods exports in 2025 (total domestic goods exports C$43.6 billion), and energy products were 33% of that total; the national export shares that year were 72% to the United States and 4.5% to China.

Oil prices and metropolitan employment are compared in the relationship graph only for Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto; Saskatoon is not compared.

Why it happened

Not assessed. Trade and investment links that published sources describe for Saskatoon are in the local-economy section of this page; no city-level trade data are held.

Why it matters

The currency, interest rates and trade partners that matter for Saskatoon are covered at national level in the Global report: one US dollar cost C$1.4135 on average in October 2026; Canada's posted five-year mortgage rate is 6.19%, which rose 0.10 percentage points over the past year. The US ten-year Treasury yield is 4.84% and Canada's ten-year yield 3.67%; how much of any move in either reaches Saskatoon's housing market is not measured here.

History

Not assessed.

Across geographies

What it influences

Three chains bear on Saskatoon: US trade measures to exports (hypotheses nationally, with a sourced provincial statement), rates to mortgage costs and housing (documented nationally) and immigration policy to population and rental vacancy (documented nationally and, with no measured size, for the metropolitan area).

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to this city specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; beyond those, see the national risks in the Canada report and the global risks in the Global report.

What to watch

The Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026, tariff changes and Statistics Canada's monthly trade release (calendar).