Winnipeg

Winnipeg: a labour market that has turned

Winnipeg's labour market has improved over the past year, most clearly in its unemployment rate. The rate was 5.0% in October 2026, the second lowest of the eight metropolitan areas and down from 6.4% a year earlier, the largest fall. Employment grew 2.2%, third of the eight after Halifax and Regina, and the employment rate is 64.3%.

People: the largest immigrant inflow, the largest outflow to other provinces

Immigrants numbered 16 thousand in the twelve months from July 2024, the most of the eight and 17.1 per 1,000 residents, third of the fourteen after Regina and Saskatoon. Winnipeg also lost the most people to other provinces: net interprovincial migration was -3,463, the largest outflow of the eight in persons, and net non-permanent residents changed -1,559. The population grew 1.2% in the year to July 2025.

Housing and prices

New-home prices rose 2.1% in the twelve months to September 2026, the largest increase of the eight. Builders began 807 homes in September 2026, second to Québec City, and 9,615 were under construction, 10.1 per 1,000 residents. Consumer prices rose 4.2% in the twelve months to September 2026, second highest of the five cities with an index and above the national 3.1%.

Output

Gross domestic product at basic prices was C$52.1 billion in 2022, the second largest of the eight, but the increase of 19.8% over five years in current dollars was the smallest. That period ends before the labour improvement shown above, so the two do not contradict each other.

What it means for decisions

For an employer, the labour market is tighter than a year ago. For a builder or lender, rising new-home prices alongside high starts show demand in the new-home segment. For a household or newcomer, the figures do not cover rents on the whole housing stock or resale prices.

What the data cannot say: they do not give wages or why people leave for other provinces. Nothing here is a forecast.

1. Jobs: 523 thousand people are employed, 2.2% against a year ago; unemployment is 5.0%. The employment rate, 64.3%, is 5th of 8 among the eight metropolitan areas in this group. Labour

2. Prices: inflation is 4.2%, against 3.1% for Canada. The city index is held here for all items only. Prices

3. People: the population changed 1.2% in the year to July 2025. Net non-permanent residents changed -1,559 in the twelve months from July 2024. Population

4. Housing: new-home prices changed +2.1% in the twelve months to September 2026, with 9,615 homes under construction. Housing

5. Output: the economy produced C$52.1 billion in 2022. Output The industry mix from the 2021 Census is in Industry.

6. Connections: the links that reach Winnipeg are national or provincial, and none is measured for the city. Connections

What happened

At basic prices and in current dollars, the Winnipeg economy produced C$52.1 billion of output in 2022, the latest reference year in Statistics Canada's table. Measured in current dollars, output was 64.8% higher in 2022 than in 2009 and 12.5% higher than in 2019. Over the same period since 2009 Halifax grew 74.4%, Calgary 72.4%, Edmonton 54.6%, Toronto 85.0%, Vancouver 98.1% and Montréal 75.3%. Manitoba's real GDP changed 8.2% from 2019 to 2025; that is a different measure (market prices at 2017 constant prices, province) and is not comparable with the metropolitan current-dollar figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table is in current dollars, so these changes include price increases, and it is not divided by population, so the figures do not separate growth in the number of people from growth in output per person. This section reports the data; attributed explanations of the differences are in the economic story and local-economy sections of this page.

Why it matters

GDP at basic prices is the broadest measure of local production that Statistics Canada publishes for metropolitan areas. It shows how large the local economy is, but not who earns the income, what is produced, or how the economy is doing now.

History

The series starts in 2009 and ends in 2022. A fall in output in any year in between would show in the chart; no year-by-year explanation is offered here.

Across geographies

The metropolitan series are comparable with each other because they come from one table with one definition and one price basis. Levels depend on city size; use growth rates for comparison.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links metropolitan output to another variable.

Risks

The table ends in 2022 and describes nothing since; it cannot show the effects of recent changes in interest rates, trade policy, population or commodity prices on Winnipeg.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next release of table 36-10-0468-01. No release date for it is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

Winnipeg's unemployment rate was 5.0% in October 2026 and employment was 523 thousand, 2.2% on a year earlier. The twelve months to September 2026 account for 6,920 of the 12,909 homes started over two years. The average two-bedroom rent in purpose-built rental apartments was C$1,570 in the October 2025 survey, with a vacancy rate of 2.8%, from 1.7% a year earlier. The net change in non-permanent residents in the metropolitan area was -1,559 in the twelve months from July 2024, on Statistics Canada's metropolitan estimates released 14 January 2026 (it revised its non-permanent resident estimates back to July 2021 in September 2026).

Why it happened

Why it matters

History

Winnipeg's unemployment rate has ranged from 4.2% (July 2022) to 12.2% (June 2020) over ten years, and the metropolitan population grew 20.2% over ten years.

Across geographies

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

What happened

Winnipeg's unemployment rate was 5.0% in October 2026 and employment was 523 thousand, 2.2% on a year earlier; the employment rate was 64.3% and the participation rate 67.8% (Statistics Canada, metropolitan area). The metropolitan population was 952 thousand on 1 July 2025, up 20.2% over ten years, while the net change in non-permanent residents in the twelve months from July 2024 was -1,559, on Statistics Canada's metropolitan estimates released 14 January 2026 (it revised its non-permanent resident estimates back to July 2021 in September 2026).

Why it happened

What Winnipeg does for a living, by the 2021 Census, was health care and social assistance first, then retail and manufacturing. Transportation and warehousing accounted for 5.6% of jobs located in the area, finance and insurance for 5.4% and manufacturing for 9.5% (366 thousand jobs in all, counted at the workplace in May 2021 under public-health restrictions).

Why it matters

History

Across geographies

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

The City reports against its Housing Accelerator Fund targets by December 2026; the third phase of the North End plant needs its funding and design decisions before 2032; the Port of Churchill Plus market study and any investment decision; Manitoba Hydro's water conditions after four low years in five; and the Statistics Canada labour force and population releases. Not held here: Winnipeg-area wages, GDP by industry for the metropolitan area, the largest employers and a current Economic Development Winnipeg or Chamber analysis citing data.

What happened

Winnipeg's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (three-month average) was 5.0% in October 2026, from 6.4% a year earlier. For comparison, Halifax's was 5.4%; among the six large metropolitan areas: Calgary's 6.6%, Edmonton's 7.1%, Toronto's 7.1%, Vancouver's 6.7%, Montréal's 6.9%, Ottawa–Gatineau's 7.1%. Employment of 523 thousand changed 2.2% over the year, against 6.2% in Calgary, 1.9% in Toronto and 1.2% in Vancouver.

The participation rate is 67.8% and the employment rate 64.3%, against 66.7% in Calgary, 62.2% in Toronto and 63.4% in Vancouver. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here (Winnipeg, Halifax, Québec, Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Saskatoon, Regina) its employment rate ranks 5th of 8.

By industry, Statistics Canada's annual Labour Force Survey estimates (table 14-10-0468-01, annual averages, not seasonally adjusted) put average employment in Winnipeg at 511 thousand in 2025, a change of 2.9% on the year before and of 14.4% since 2019. Goods-producing industries account for 18.5% of employed persons and services-producing industries for 81.5%; among the individual groups, health care and social assistance 17.0%, wholesale and retail trade 13.2% and manufacturing 9.5% of employment. The table counts people by the industry of their main job and by where they live, so it is a measure of employment, not of output, wages or the number of businesses. Estimates for a single industry group in one metropolitan area come from a small survey sample and are less steady than the total: Statistics Canada suppresses some cells, and the table is annual, so a one-year move in a small group should not be read as a trend. No sampling-error range is held with these series, so none is quoted; the monthly metropolitan rates above are three-month averages and are noisier than the annual figures. Wages for the metropolitan area are not held here; the Statistics Canada wage tables used cover provinces and Canada.

Why it happened

The data show where Winnipeg stands, not why. Since the end of 2019 employment has changed 16.4% in Winnipeg, 24.1% in Halifax, 27.1% in Calgary and 10.9% in Toronto; the data held here cannot say why those paths differ.

Why it matters

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand. The employment rate says more than the unemployment rate about how much of the adult population is working, because people who stop looking for work leave the unemployment count.

History

Over ten years Winnipeg's unemployment rate has averaged 6.0%, with a high of 12.2% in June 2020 and a low of 4.2% in July 2022. The Labour Force Survey series for the metropolitan area start in 2011 for employment and participation (earlier months are not held).

Across geographies

Winnipeg's rate minus Halifax's is -0.4 percentage points. As context, on a different definition (monthly, province-wide), Manitoba's unemployment rate is 5.0% and Canada's 6.7%; these must not be read against the metropolitan three-month averages.

What it influences

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand in the region. No link from Winnipeg's employment to another variable is measured here.

Risks

Not assessed: the exposure of Winnipeg's employment to particular industries or to US demand over time, beyond what the annual industry employment shown above describes; that table does not measure exposure to US demand.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (release dates in the calendar).

What happened

Winnipeg's consumer prices were 4.2% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier (from 2.8% a year before), against 5.4% in Halifax, 3.4% in Calgary, 2.1% in Toronto and 3.0% in Vancouver, and 3.1% for Canada.

Why it happened

Why it matters

The CPI measures changes in prices, not their level, so a rate of change says nothing about how expensive the city is. A rate that is falling or rising against its own recent past tells more than a comparison with one other city: a year earlier Winnipeg's rate was 2.8%. Because the index covers all items together, it cannot show whether housing, food or energy explains a difference.

History

Winnipeg's rate has averaged 2.8% over ten years and peaked at 9.4% in June 2022.

Across geographies

Winnipeg's rate minus Canada's is 1.2 percentage points, and minus Halifax's is -1.1 percentage points, both computed before the rates are rounded.

What it influences

Inflation bears on wage bargaining, the policy rate and mortgage renewals; those links are national and not measured for the city.

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to Winnipeg specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; the national risks are energy prices and tariffs (see the Canada report).

What to watch

Statistics Canada's monthly Consumer Price Index release (calendar).

What happened

The Winnipeg metropolitan area had 952 thousand residents on July 1, 2025, 1.2% more than a year earlier. Over five years it grew 11.6%, against 15.0% in Halifax, 20.1% in Calgary and 9.5% in Toronto. In the latest year the growth rates were 2.9% in Calgary, 3.1% in Edmonton, 0.0% in Toronto, 0.2% in Vancouver and 0.5% in Montréal. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here it ranks 1st of 8 by population.

Why it happened

In the demographic year that began in July 2024, the Winnipeg metropolitan area recorded 8,620 births and 7,593 deaths, 16 thousand immigrants, a net change of -1,559 non-permanent residents, net interprovincial migration of -3,463 and net intraprovincial migration (movement to and from the rest of the province) of 688. The year before, immigrants numbered 19 thousand and the net change in non-permanent residents was 18 thousand. Net non-permanent residents averaged 8,441 a year over the latest five demographic years.

Why it matters

Population growth adds workers and households. A fast-growing metropolitan area can need more housing, schools and services, and it also gains consumers. Over five years Winnipeg's growth was 11.6%.

History

Over ten years Winnipeg's population grew 20.2%, and since 2001 it has grown 36.3%. The components of change are available from 2001.

Across geographies

The provincial population grew 0.6% in the latest four quarters; net interprovincial migration for Manitoba over the four quarters to Q2 2026 was -5,291. The metropolitan area's own net interprovincial migration is among the components above.

What it influences

Population growth bears on housing demand, labour supply and public service needs. Those links are national and not measured for the city.

Risks

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next annual metropolitan population estimates and quarterly provincial estimates.

What happened

Winnipeg started 6,920 homes over the past twelve months and completed 5,392. At the end of September 2026, 9,615 were under construction, 18.9% against a year earlier (Halifax 14,573, Toronto 88,108, Vancouver 61,680, Calgary 26,252).

The New Housing Price Index for Winnipeg is 148.6, 2.1% on a year ago and 8.9% since February 2022. Halifax's index changed 0.6% over the year, Vancouver's -2.1% and Toronto's -4.9%. Index levels are not comparable across cities because each is indexed to its own base.

The value of building permits (all types, seasonally adjusted, current dollars) over the twelve months to August 2026 was C$3.7 billion, +13.5% on the twelve months before; the series starts in 2018.

In the October 2025 Rental Market Survey the average rent for a two-bedroom unit in purpose-built rental structures of three or more units in Winnipeg was C$1,570 a month, 4.2% higher than a year earlier (CMHC's same-sample figure, for structures surveyed in both years, is 1.9%) and 24.2% higher than five years earlier, ranking 10th of 14 among fourteen cities (highest = 1); the same measure was C$1,908 in Calgary, C$2,045 in Toronto, C$2,364 in Vancouver. The vacancy rate was 2.8%, from 1.7% a year earlier, ranking 11th of 14 among the fourteen (against 4.9% in Calgary, 3.0% in Toronto, 3.7% in Vancouver). The table covers purpose-built rental structures only; condominium, house and basement-suite rentals, and the asking rents on new listings, are not in it.

Why it happened

The data show how much is being built and what is happening to new-home prices; they do not separate demand, land and construction costs, interest rates and incomes. Since January 2026 the posted five-year mortgage rate has gone from 6.09% to 6.19% (week of 28 October 2026) and the posted one-year rate from 5.84% to 5.49%; see the Canada report.

Why it matters

Housing is a large household expense. New-home prices are one part of the picture: resale prices are not included, and the rent figures above cover purpose-built rental structures only.

History

The monthly peak of units under construction in the past ten years was 9,615 in September 2026, and the lowest was 3,988 in December 2016.

Across geographies

On the comparison with the large cities, units under construction changed over the twelve months to September 2026 by 18.9% in Winnipeg, 12.7% in Halifax, -4.2% in Toronto, -2.3% in Vancouver and 4.0% in Edmonton. Counts depend on city size and are not rates per person.

What it influences

The Bank of Canada describes a link between mortgage costs and housing, and CMHC a link between supply and affordability; neither is estimated for Winnipeg.

Risks

What to watch

CMHC's monthly starts, Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index and building permits (release dates in the calendar), and the Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026.

What happened

In the 2021 Census, 366 thousand jobs were located in the Winnipeg metropolitan area (people who worked at home or had a usual workplace there; people with no fixed workplace address are not in the table). The three largest sectors were Health care and social assistance (16.1% of jobs), Retail trade (11.9%) and Manufacturing (9.5%).

Measured as its share of jobs divided by the six large metropolitan areas' combined share (among sectors that make up at least one fiftieth of Winnipeg's jobs), the sector in which Winnipeg stood furthest above them was Health care and social assistance: 16.1% of its jobs, against 14.2% in Calgary, 15.5% in Edmonton, 11.1% in Toronto, 12.5% in Vancouver, 14.7% in Montréal, 12.9% in Ottawa–Gatineau. The ranking is fixed to these 2021 Census figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table counts jobs by sector at one date and says nothing about why a metropolitan area has the mix it has. Attributed descriptions of Winnipeg's industry structure are in the local-economy section of this page.

Why it matters

The industry mix shows what a local economy does for a living, which bears on how it is exposed to changes in demand, prices and policy. It does not measure output, wages or how the economy is performing; those need other tables.

History

Not available from this table: the Census is taken every five years and the platform holds only the 2021 reference week (May 2021). Annual industry employment for the metropolitan area comes from the Labour Force Survey and is in the labour section of this page.

Across geographies

The metropolitan areas come from one table with one definition, so the shares can be compared with one another. They are not comparable with provincial Labour Force Survey industry shares, which use a different survey, year and definition. Manitoba's provincial industry mix is on its province page.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links the metropolitan industry mix to another variable.

Risks

What to watch

The release of 2026 Census results on industry for metropolitan areas. No release date for them is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

Most recorded connections that reach Winnipeg are provincial or national. Manitoba's exposure to the United States is 66% of its goods exports in 2025 (total domestic goods exports C$19.6 billion), and energy products are 6% of that total; the national export shares are 72% to the United States and 4.5% to China.

Oil prices and metropolitan employment are compared in the relationship graph only for Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto; Winnipeg is not compared.

Why it happened

Not assessed. Trade and investment links that published sources describe for Winnipeg are in the local-economy section of this page; no city-level trade data are held.

Why it matters

The currency, interest rates and trade partners that matter for Winnipeg are covered at national level in the Global report: one US dollar cost C$1.4135 on average in October 2026; Canada's posted five-year mortgage rate is 6.19%, which rose 0.10 percentage points over the past year. On 5 November 2026 the US ten-year Treasury yield was 4.84% and Canada's ten-year yield 3.67%; how much of any move in either reaches Winnipeg's housing market is not measured here.

History

Not assessed.

Across geographies

What it influences

Three chains bear on Winnipeg: US trade measures to exports (hypotheses nationally, with a sourced provincial statement), rates to mortgage costs and housing (documented nationally) and immigration policy to population and rental demand (documented nationally and, with no measured size, for the metropolitan area).

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to this city specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; beyond those, see the national risks in the Canada report and the global risks in the Global report.

What to watch

The Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026, tariff changes and Statistics Canada's monthly trade release (calendar).