What is Regina's economy built on, how does it differ from Saskatoon's, and what pressures sit under the recent growth?
Regina's metropolitan population grew 11.7% between July 2022 and July 2025 and its rental vacancy rate has stayed low, but the net inflow of non-permanent residents has fallen sharply, unemployment is 5.9%, and recent industrial decisions, from Crown purchases of local steel to Federated Co-operatives' paused renewable diesel and canola projects, have turned on government policy
Graphic: The Regina economy: a capital-city, refining and steel base that gr…
What happened
Regina's unemployment rate was 5.9% in October 2026, from 6.4% a year earlier, while employment was 158 thousand, 3.3% on the year. The metropolitan population was 291 thousand on 1 July 2025, 11.7% above its 2022 level. The average two-bedroom rent in purpose-built rental apartments was C$1,478 in the October 2025 survey, with a vacancy rate of 2.6%. The net change in non-permanent residents was 687 in the latest demographic year, against 5,500 the year before.
Why it happened
The City of Regina says Regina is the capital of Saskatchewan. In the 2021 Census, public administration accounted for 11.2% of jobs located in the Regina area, against 5.9% in Saskatoon, and finance and insurance for 6.6%, against 3.6%. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction was 0.9% in Regina and 2.2% in Saskatoon. These are observed shares; none of the sources cited explains the gap, and the capital-city role is the City's description, not an attributed cause.
Evidence: City of Regina: Regina History & Facts
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada's profile, built on the 2021 Census, says the key sectors of the economy in Regina, which account for 39% of the jobs in the region, are health care and social assistance, retail trade and public administration.
Evidence: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada: Economic profile: Regina (CMA), Saskatchewan
Federated Co-operatives Limited says its Co-op Refinery Complex in northeast Regina has nearly 1,000 employees, processes up to 130,000 barrels of crude oil every day, and was expanded in a project completed in 2012 costing $3 billion, which it calls the largest capital project in Saskatchewan history at the time.
Evidence: Federated Co-operatives Limited: Co-op Refinery Complex (Refinery page)
The Government of Saskatchewan said in March 2025 that its Crown corporations were buying local steel, with SaskPower negotiating up to 10,000 tons from EVRAZ, and the Crown Investments minister said the purchasing helps keep over 400 people on the job in Regina. The release does not say how that figure is counted, so it is a ministerial statement, not an audited employment count.
Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Crowns Support Local Steel Jobs
When the provincial government announced Cargill's canola crush plant for Regina in April 2021, it described a $350 million project with annual capacity of 1 million metric tonnes and approximately 50 full-time positions, to be operational by 2024. Cargill's own notice that it has opened is not cited, so the plant's start-up date is not confirmed by a source in this report.
Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan: New Canola Processing Facility Announced for Regina
Why it matters
Annual employment in health care and social assistance was 26 thousand in 2025, 19.8% on 22 thousand a year earlier; public administration was 15 thousand, 15.9%; manufacturing fell to 5,800, -21.6%. Total employment rose 4.5% to 151 thousand.
The gains were in public-sector-linked services and the loss in manufacturing, which fits a metropolitan economy that leans on government. The annual figures are a sample survey estimate for a mid-sized area and a single year, none of the sources cited explains the changes, and the manufacturing fall in particular should not be read as a trend.
The City of Regina's 2026 Growth Monitoring Report links rising housing supply to population growth of 27,000 since 2021, says building permits for new housing units reached a five-year high in 2025 at 1,674 units, and says Regina is still the most affordable major Canadian city to buy a house, at a benchmark price of $356,400 in June 2026.
Evidence: City of Regina: New Growth Trends Highlight Demand for Diverse Housing Supply
History
The metropolitan population was 257 thousand in 2021 and 291 thousand in 2025. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.8% (July 2022) to 11.6% (June 2020) over ten years.
The same federal profile reports that between 2011 and 2021 Regina's population grew 18%, against 9.6% for Saskatchewan. The surge after 2021 therefore follows a decade in which Regina was already growing faster than the province.
Evidence: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada: Economic profile: Regina (CMA), Saskatchewan
Across geographies
CMHC's summer 2026 outlook forecasts a rental vacancy rate of 3.0 per cent in Regina in 2026, against 4.4 per cent in Saskatoon, and total housing starts of 1,500 in Regina against 1,687 in 2025.
Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook
Consumer prices rose 3.4% in Regina and 3.1% in Saskatoon in the year to September 2026. Regina's unemployment rate is 5.9% against 5.9% in Saskatoon and 5.0% in Winnipeg.
The province-wide picture, including trade and public finances, is in the Saskatchewan reports and is not repeated here.
What it influences
CMHC's 2025 Rental Market Report says the vacancy rate for purpose-built rental apartments stayed at 2.7 per cent (the 2.6% above also counts row houses), well below its ten-year average and lower than expected, and that strong full-time employment and relatively high population growth supported rental demand. It adds that rent growth continued to outpace wage gains.
Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: 2025 Rental Market Report (Regina)
The City reports a Housing Accelerator Fund agreement with the federal government worth $35.2 Million signed in February 2024, backing zoning and development-charge changes.
Evidence: City of Regina: Housing Accelerator Fund
Federated Co-operatives says its 2026 refinery turnaround is an investment of more than $150 million over about 54 days, creating about 1,600 temporary jobs; the jobs end with the project.
Risks
The federal profile models a scenario of no further immigration: by 2031 the region's workforce could fall 33% and jobs 29%. The profile itself calls a complete pause unlikely; it is an illustration of dependence on immigration, not a forecast.
Evidence: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada: Economic profile: Regina (CMA), Saskatchewan
Federated Co-operatives paused its proposed renewable diesel facility and a joint-venture canola crush plant in Regina in January 2025, citing regulatory and political uncertainty, potential shifts in low-carbon public policy and escalating costs. The pause shows that announced industrial investment can depend on policy as well as demand.
Signal49 Research, the former Conference Board of Canada, titles its July 2026 Regina report 'Easing Trade Tensions to Support Economy, but Demographics Limit Growth' and says it assesses how the economy is holding up in the face of trade uncertainty and cooling population growth. Only that summary is public. (Source: Signal49 Research, Major City Insights: Regina, July 2026.)
Evidence: Signal49 Research: Major City Insights: Regina—July 2026
What to watch
CMHC's outlook has Regina's vacancy rate rising to 3.2 per cent in 2027 and average two-bedroom rent reaching 1,636 dollars by 2028; these are CMHC's forecasts, not Northline's. Statistics Canada's labour force survey for the unemployment rate, its next demographic release for non-permanent resident flows, and the autumn CMHC rental survey will show whether the cooling the sources describe is under way.
Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook
Prepared with AI assistance.
Follow the relationships
- Saskatchewan 10 with evidence · 11 recorded Open in Studio
- Employment 0 with evidence · 0 recorded Open in Studio
Sources for this section (8 datasets, 12 documents)
Data
- Labour force characteristics by census metropolitan area, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted (14-10-0459-01; 4 series; latest October 2026; retrieved 2026-11-07)
- Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2021 boundaries (17-10-0148-01; 1 series; latest 2025; retrieved 2026-10-24)
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, average rents for areas with a population of 10,000 and over (34-10-0133-01; 1 series; latest 2025; retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, vacancy rates, row and apartment structures of three units and over, privately initiated in census metropolitan areas, weighted average (34-10-0130-01; 1 series; latest 2025; retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Components of population change by census metropolitan area and census agglomeration, 2021 boundaries (17-10-0149-01; 1 series; latest 2024; retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Place of work status by industry sector, work activity during the reference year, age and gender: Census metropolitan areas, tracted census agglomerations and census tracts of work (98-10-0492-01; 6 series; latest 1 January 2021; retrieved 2026-10-24)
- Employment characteristics by census metropolitan area, annual (14-10-0468-01; 4 series; latest 2025; retrieved 2026-11-07)
- Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted (18-10-0004-01; 2 series; latest September 2026; retrieved 2026-10-25)
Documents cited
- City of Regina: Regina History & Facts (retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada: Economic profile: Regina (CMA), Saskatchewan (retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Federated Co-operatives Limited: Co-op Refinery Complex (Refinery page) (retrieved 2026-11-07)
- Government of Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Crowns Support Local Steel Jobs (retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Government of Saskatchewan: New Canola Processing Facility Announced for Regina (retrieved 2026-10-25)
- City of Regina: New Growth Trends Highlight Demand for Diverse Housing Supply (retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook (retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: 2025 Rental Market Report (Regina) (retrieved 2026-10-25)
- City of Regina: Housing Accelerator Fund (retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Federated Co-operatives Limited: FCL investing more than 50 million in annual Co-op Refinery Complex Turnaround (retrieved 2026-10-25)
- Federated Co-operatives Limited: FCL pauses projects related to proposed Integrated Agriculture Complex (retrieved 2026-11-07)
- Signal49 Research: Major City Insights: Regina—July 2026 (retrieved 2026-10-25)
Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Every explanation here is a statement by the named organisation. Geographies are mixed and labelled where used: the Statistics Canada census metropolitan area (population, unemployment, census jobs, annual industry employment), the City of Regina (the City's growth report and budget), the Saskatchewan economic region of Regina-Moose Mountain, and the province. No metropolitan wages are held and no source cited ranks Regina's employers, so no employer ranking is given. The Global Transportation Hub, the Regina Regional Opportunities Commission and Economic Development Regina are not cited. Cargill's own announcement of the plant's opening is not cited, so the opening is not confirmed here. Annual industry employment is a sample survey and is noisy for a metropolitan area. Forecasts are the publishers', not Northline's.