Financial markets, explained through the real economy
Interest rates, bond yields, the Canadian dollar and commodity prices, each with its source and observation date, and each connected to the housing, trade, investment and household indicators it is often compared with. This is economic research, not a trading screen: nothing here is a live quote, a forecast or investment advice.
48 market indicators from the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the World Bank and Statistics Canada.
Interest rates
The rates central banks set and the borrowing rates that follow them.
| Indicator | Latest | Observed | Change, 1 year | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.50% | 2026-11-05 | +0.25 pts | Daily · Bank of Canada |
| Prime business rate (chartered banks) | 4.45% | 2026-10-28 | -0.25 pts | Weekly · Bank of Canada |
| Conventional 5-year mortgage rate (posted) | 6.19% | 2026-10-28 | +0.10 pts | Weekly · Bank of Canada |
| Conventional 1-year mortgage rate (posted) | 5.49% | 2026-10-28 | -0.60 pts | Weekly · Bank of Canada |
| US federal funds effective rate | 3.88% | 2026-11-04 | -0.23 pts | Weekly · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) |
| US bank prime loan rate | 7.00% | 2026-11-04 | -0.25 pts | Weekly · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) |
| ECB deposit facility rate | 2.50% | 2026-11-07 | +0.50 pts | Daily · European Central Bank |
| ECB main refinancing operations rate | 2.65% | 2026-11-07 | +0.50 pts | Daily · European Central Bank |
Change over one year is the latest value against the observation on or before the same date a year earlier; percentage-point changes for rates, percent changes otherwise. Blank where the series does not reach back that far.
Policy rates: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve and European Central Bank
Percent. Canada: overnight target (Bank of Canada, daily). United States: federal funds effective rate, weekly average (Federal Reserve H.15). Euro area: deposit facility rate (ECB, daily). Different instruments: compare direction and timing, not decimals.
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Latest values: Canada: policy rate 2.5 (2026-11-05); United States: federal funds effective 3.88 (2026-11-04); Euro area: deposit facility 2.5 (2026-11-07).
Related relationships: US interest rates · Bank of Canada policy rate · US Federal Reserve policy rate · European Central Bank key rates · 10 relationships use this data as evidence
Open these in Intelligence Studio Starts a workspace with the series and the relationships recorded between them.
Government bonds
What governments pay to borrow for 3 months to 30 years.
| Indicator | Latest | Observed | Change, 1 year | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government of Canada 2-year bond yield | 3.17% | 2026-11-05 | +0.75 pts | Daily · Bank of Canada |
| Government of Canada 5-year bond yield | 3.39% | 2026-11-05 | +0.66 pts | Daily · Bank of Canada |
| Canada 10-year government bond yield | 3.67% | 2026-11-05 | +0.51 pts | Daily · Bank of Canada |
| Government of Canada long-term bond yield | 4.02% | 2026-11-05 | +0.41 pts | Daily · Bank of Canada |
| US Treasury 3-month yield | 4.17% | 2026-11-05 | +0.21 pts | Daily · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) |
| US Treasury 2-year yield | 4.46% | 2026-11-05 | +0.83 pts | Daily · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) |
| US Treasury 10-year yield | 4.84% | 2026-11-05 | +0.67 pts | Daily · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) |
| US Treasury 30-year yield | 5.25% | 2026-11-05 | +0.51 pts | Daily · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) |
| Euro area 2-year government bond yield (AAA) | 2.96% | 2026-11-05 | +1.00 pts | Daily · European Central Bank |
| Euro area 10-year government bond yield (AAA) | 3.29% | 2026-11-05 | +0.56 pts | Daily · European Central Bank |
Change over one year is the latest value against the observation on or before the same date a year earlier; percentage-point changes for rates, percent changes otherwise. Blank where the series does not reach back that far.
Ten-year government bond yields: Canada, United States and euro area
Percent, daily. United States: Treasury constant-maturity yield (Federal Reserve H.15). Canada: Bank of Canada benchmark. Euro area: ECB estimate for AAA-rated central-government bonds, not the Bund and not an average of all members.
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Latest values: Canada 3.67 (2026-11-05); United States 4.84 (2026-11-05); Euro area (AAA) 3.294 (2026-11-05).
Related relationships: Government of Canada bond yields · US Treasury yields · Euro area government bond yields (AAA) · 6 relationships use this data as evidence
Open these in Intelligence Studio Starts a workspace with the series and the relationships recorded between them.
Yield curves
How yields differ across maturities, and how that gap has changed.
| Indicator | Latest | Observed | Change, 1 year | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada yield curve slope: 10-year minus 2-year | 0.50 pts | 2026-11-05 | -0.24 pts | Daily · Bank of Canada |
| US yield curve slope: 10-year minus 2-year | 0.38 pts | 2026-11-05 | -0.16 pts | Daily · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) |
| Ten-year yield gap: United States minus Canada | 1.17 pts | 2026-11-05 | +0.16 pts | Daily · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) |
Change over one year is the latest value against the observation on or before the same date a year earlier; percentage-point changes for rates, percent changes otherwise. Blank where the series does not reach back that far.
Slope of the US yield curve
Ten-year minus two-year Treasury yield, percentage points (derived by Northline from H.15). Below zero is an inverted curve.
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Latest values: United States 0.38 (2026-11-05); Canada 0.5 (2026-11-05).
What a yield curve shows
A yield curve plots the yield on government bonds against their time to maturity. When longer-term bonds yield more than short-term ones the curve slopes upward, which is the usual shape. When short-term yields exceed long-term yields the curve is inverted.
An inverted curve has often come before a slowdown, so economists watch it. It is not a guarantee: some inversions were not followed by a recession, the delay has varied, and the slope also reflects expectations about interest rates and the extra return investors ask for holding long bonds. Treat it as one signal among many.
Canada: yield by maturity
Government of Canada benchmark yields. The long-term benchmark has no fixed maturity and is listed in the Government bonds table above, not on this chart.
Values behind the chart
| Date | 2-year | 5-year | 10-year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest (2026-11-05) | 3.17% | 3.39% | 3.67% |
| One year earlier (2025-11-05) | 2.42% | 2.73% | 3.16% |
| Five years earlier (2021-11-06) | 0.92% | 1.36% | 1.59% |
Each value is the observation on or before the date shown, for that maturity; the dates actually used can be a few days earlier when a day was not a business day. Source: Bank of Canada.
United States: yield by maturity
US Treasury constant-maturity yields.
Values behind the chart
| Date | 3-month | 2-year | 10-year | 30-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest (2026-11-05) | 4.17% | 4.46% | 4.84% | 5.25% |
| One year earlier (2025-11-05) | 3.96% | 3.63% | 4.17% | 4.74% |
| Five years earlier (2021-11-06) | 0.05% | 0.39% | 1.45% | 1.87% |
Each value is the observation on or before the date shown, for that maturity; the dates actually used can be a few days earlier when a day was not a business day. Source: Federal Reserve H.15.
Open these in Intelligence Studio Starts a workspace with the series and the relationships recorded between them.
Currencies
The Canadian dollar against the currencies of major partners.
| Indicator | Latest | Observed | Change, 1 year | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD: Canadian dollars per US dollar | 1.414 C$ per 1 USD | 2026-10 | +1.0% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
| EUR/CAD: Canadian dollars per euro | 1.583 C$ per 1 EUR | 2026-10 | -2.8% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
| GBP/CAD: Canadian dollars per British pound | 1.879 C$ per 1 GBP | 2026-10 | +0.6% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
| JPY/CAD: Canadian dollars per Japanese yen | 0.0090 C$ per 1 JPY | 2026-10 | -3.2% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
| AUD/CAD: Canadian dollars per Australian dollar | 0.988 C$ per 1 AUD | 2026-10 | +7.9% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
| CNY/CAD: Canadian dollars per Chinese yuan | 0.2115 C$ per 1 CNY | 2026-10 | +7.6% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
| INR/CAD: Canadian dollars per Indian rupee | 0.0148 C$ per 1 INR | 2026-10 | -6.5% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
| KRW/CAD: Canadian dollars per South Korean won | 0.0011 C$ per 1 KRW | 2026-10 | +7.5% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
| EUR/USD: US dollars per euro | 1.12 US$ per €1 | 2026-10 | -3.7% | Monthly · European Central Bank |
Change over one year is the latest value against the observation on or before the same date a year earlier; percentage-point changes for rates, percent changes otherwise. Blank where the series does not reach back that far.
The Canadian dollar against eight partner currencies
Monthly average rate; start of period = 100. A rising line means the foreign currency cost more Canadian dollars.
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Latest values: USD/CAD 1.413 (2026-10); EUR/CAD 1.583 (2026-10); GBP/CAD 1.879 (2026-10); JPY/CAD 0.009 (2026-10); and 4 more in the data table.
Related relationships: Canadian dollar (C$ per US$) · 1 relationship use this data as evidence
Open these in Intelligence Studio Starts a workspace with the series and the relationships recorded between them.
Equities
Stock-market indices.
Commodities
Energy, metals and other prices that matter to Canadian output and exports.
| Indicator | Latest | Observed | Change, 1 year | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | 97.70 US$ per bbl | 2026-10 | +62.3% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Brent crude oil | 125.00 US$ per bbl | 2026-10 | +93.2% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Natural gas, US (Henry Hub) | 2.96 US$ per mmbtu | 2026-10 | -7.5% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Gold | 4,105.00 US$ per troy oz | 2026-10 | +1.2% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Copper | 14,508.00 US$ per mt | 2026-10 | +35.1% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Silver | 57.00 US$ per troy oz | 2026-10 | +15.4% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Aluminum | 3,061.00 US$ per mt | 2026-10 | +9.6% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Nickel | 15,436.00 US$ per mt | 2026-10 | +2.3% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Zinc | 3,818.00 US$ per mt | 2026-10 | +21.1% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Potash (potassium chloride) | 357.50 US$ per mt | 2026-10 | +1.6% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Iron ore | 90.80 US$ per dmtu | 2026-10 | -12.3% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Wheat, US hard red winter | 317.00 US$ per mt | 2026-10 | +37.3% | Monthly · World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) |
| Bank of Canada commodity price index (total) | 747.7 index, 1972=100 (US$) | 2026-09 | +23.5% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
| Bank of Canada commodity price index: energy | 1,636.5 index, 1972=100 (US$) | 2026-09 | +38.1% | Monthly · Bank of Canada |
Change over one year is the latest value against the observation on or before the same date a year earlier; percentage-point changes for rates, percent changes otherwise. Blank where the series does not reach back that far.
Crude oil prices
US dollars per barrel, monthly average (World Bank Pink Sheet). WTI is the benchmark for Canadian light crude; Brent and Dubai are the other main references.
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Latest values: Crude oil, WTI 97.7 (2026-10); Crude oil, Brent 125 (2026-10); Crude oil, Dubai 102.7 (2026-10).
Related relationships: World oil price (WTI) · 10 relationships use this data as evidence
Open these in Intelligence Studio Starts a workspace with the series and the relationships recorded between them.
Credit and financial conditions
Borrowing costs, bank lending and household debt service.
| Indicator | Latest | Observed | Change, 1 year | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chartered banks: business loans | 1,066,589,000,000.00 C$ | 2026-08 | +8.4% | Monthly · Statistics Canada |
| Debt service ratio | 14.52% | 2026 Q2 | -0.26 pts | Quarterly · Statistics Canada |
| Mortgage debt service ratio | 7.72% | 2026 Q2 | -0.21 pts | Quarterly · Statistics Canada |
| Household credit market debt to disposable income | 176.37% | 2026 Q2 | -0.97 pts | Quarterly · Statistics Canada |
Change over one year is the latest value against the observation on or before the same date a year earlier; percentage-point changes for rates, percent changes otherwise. Blank where the series does not reach back that far.
The policy rate, prime and posted mortgage rates
Percent. Posted conventional mortgage rates are not the rates most borrowers pay after negotiation; they track the direction of borrowing costs.
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Latest values: Policy rate 2.5 (2026-11-05); Prime rate 4.45 (2026-10-28); 1-year mortgage (posted) 5.49 (2026-10-28); 5-year mortgage (posted) 6.19 (2026-10-28).
Related relationships: Bank of Canada policy rate · Prime and posted mortgage rates · 10 relationships use this data as evidence
Open these in Intelligence Studio Starts a workspace with the series and the relationships recorded between them.
Questions to investigate
Relationships economists often examine. Each opens in Intelligence Studio, where Scenario Intelligence tests what the history can and cannot support.
- What has happened to Canadian housing starts after past changes in the policy rate? 2 indicators
- How closely does the 2-year yield follow the policy rate? 2 indicators
- How have posted mortgage rates and housing starts moved together? 2 indicators
- How closely do 5-year mortgage rates follow the 5-year bond yield? 2 indicators
- Do the Canada-US policy-rate gap and the exchange rate move together? 3 indicators
- How have housing starts moved after changes in the 10-year yield? 2 indicators
- How has business investment moved with long-term yields? 2 indicators
- Do the US-Canada yield gap and the exchange rate move together? 2 indicators
These are questions, not findings. A pair of series that moved together may have done so for other reasons; Studio labels what is documented, what is only a statistical association and what is a hypothesis, and reports “not enough evidence” when the history does not support an estimate.
What is and is not here
Stated plainly rather than implied.
Sources and licences: Methodology and sources. Each indicator page names its publisher and attribution.