Euro area
GDP was US$18.01 trillion in 2025 (current US dollars). Real GDP grew 1.4% in 2025. GDP per capita at purchasing-power parity was $56,677 (constant 2021 international dollars, 2025).
What is the euro area’s position, and how does the ECB’s tightening affect Canada?
The euro area grew 1.4% in 2025; inflation is now 4.0%, the ECB’s deposit rate 2.50%
Structure and recent performance
The euro area produced US$18.0 trillion in 2025 and the European Union US$21.2 trillion. Real growth was 1.4% for the euro area and 1.5% for the EU in 2025. Quarterly data show year-on-year growth of 1.3% in Q3 2026; industrial production was 97.6 in August 2026 (2021 = 100). Unemployment is 6.5% (September 2026). Inflation rose from 1.9% in February to 4.0% in October 2026. The ECB's deposit facility rate is 2.50% after increases in June and September, and the AAA-rated ten-year yield is 3.29%. Trade is 87.3% of GDP (including trade between members) and the euro area's net energy imports were 67.5% of its energy use in 2023.
On 29 October the ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged.
Evidence: European Central Bank: Monetary policy statement, 29 October 2026
The Bank of Canada's October 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects euro area real GDP growth of 0.9 per cent in 2026 and 1.2 per cent in 2027. That is the Bank of Canada's projection, not an observation and not Northline's.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
The data point to a large, open economy with a common currency; this report has no current account figure for the aggregate. The vulnerabilities in the data are exposure to energy prices (net energy imports of 67.5% of energy use, a European gas price up 153.6% since February), low growth, and an ageing population (22.9% aged 65 and over). Differences between the four largest members are large: unemployment ranges from 4.1% in Germany to 10.3% in Spain.
Connections to Canada
The European Union as a bloc took 5.5% of Canada's merchandise exports in 2025 and supplied 11.6% of its imports. Euro area yields and Canadian yields are correlated (0.79 for 12-month changes, Northline's calculation from the ECB's and the Bank of Canada's published yields), and one euro cost C$1.5832 on average in October 2026. Any link from European gas prices to Canada, for example through liquefied natural gas projects, is not covered in this report.
"The sample" in this profile means the twelve economies that have a profile here: the United States, China, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Australia. It is not a ranking of all countries, and each comparison uses the latest year available for each country, which can differ.
What the data say about Euro area
GDP was US$18.01 trillion in 2025 (current US dollars). Real GDP grew 1.4% in 2025. GDP per capita at purchasing-power parity was $56,677 (constant 2021 international dollars, 2025). Consumer price inflation averaged 2.5% in 2025. The modelled unemployment rate was 6.3% in 2025. Exports plus imports equalled 87% of GDP in 2025. Population was 358.7 million in 2025.
| Indicator | Latest | Year | Freshness | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (current US$) US$ (current) | 1.801e+13 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| GDP, PPP (constant 2021 international $) international $ (2021 PPP) | 2.033e+13 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD |
| GDP growth (annual %) % change, annual | 1.41 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG |
| GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $) international $ (2021 PPP) | 56,676.73 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD |
| GDP per capita (current US$) US$ (current) | 50,214.08 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.CD |
| GDP per capita growth (annual %) % change, annual | 1.11 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG |
| Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) % change, annual average | 2.47 | 2025 | current | WDI FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG |
| Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) % of labour force (modelled ILO estimate) | 6.28 | 2025 | current | WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS |
| Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population ages 15+) (modeled ILO estimate) % of population 15+ (modelled ILO estimate) | 56.97 | 2025 | current | WDI SL.TLF.CACT.ZS |
| Trade (% of GDP) % of GDP | 87.32 | 2025 | current | WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
| Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) % of GDP | 48.57 | 2025 | current | WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS |
| Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) % of GDP | 44.69 | 2025 | current | WDI NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS |
| Gross capital formation (% of GDP) % of GDP | 21.89 | 2025 | current | WDI NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS |
| Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP) % of GDP | 1.43 | 2025 | current | WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
| Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP) % of GDP | 14.11 | 2025 | current | WDI NV.IND.MANF.ZS |
| Services, value added (% of GDP) % of GDP | 66.57 | 2025 | current | WDI NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS |
| Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) % of GDP | 1.55 | 2025 | current | WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
| Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) % of GDP | 2.29 | 2023 | current | WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| GDP per person employed (constant 2021 PPP $) US$ (constant 2021 PPP) per person employed | 123,421.09 | 2025 | current | WDI SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD |
| Population, total persons | 3.587e+8 | 2025 | current | WDI SP.POP.TOTL |
| Population growth (annual %) % change, annual | 0.3 | 2025 | current | WDI SP.POP.GROW |
| Population ages 65 and above (% of total population) % of population | 22.88 | 2025 | current | WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
| Net lending (+) / net borrowing (-) (% of GDP) % of GDP (net lending/borrowing) | -2.74 | 2024 | current | WDI GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS |
| Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) kg of oil equivalent per capita | 2,791.1 | 2024 | current | WDI EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE |
| Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output) % of electricity output | 37.56 | 2021 | aging | WDI EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS |
| Energy imports, net (% of energy use) % of energy use (net imports) | 67.49 | 2023 | current | WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
| Net migration persons (5-year net, UN estimate) | 102,179 | 2025 | current | WDI SM.POP.NETM |
| School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) % gross enrolment | 81.89 | 2024 | current | WDI SE.TER.ENRR |
Euro area against Canada and the world
Annual series, 1990 onward.
Charts load as you scroll.
Recorded links between Euro area and Canada
From the relationship graph, with each link’s evidence class.
- Correlation of 12-month change in the euro area AAA ten-year yield (ECB estimate) and 12-month change in the Government of Canada ten-year yield (percentage points): lag 0 months: r = 0.793 (n = 191); lag 3 months: r = 0.606 (n = 188); lag 6 months: r = 0.459 (n = 185); lag 12 months: r = 0.137 (n = 179). All four pre-specified lags are shown. This is an observed association, not a causal estimate. observed correlation details
- Correlation of 12-month change in the US ten-year Treasury yield and 12-month change in the euro area AAA ten-year yield (percentage points): lag 0 months: r = 0.79 (n = 191); lag 3 months: r = 0.652 (n = 188); lag 6 months: r = 0.504 (n = 185); lag 12 months: r = 0.135 (n = 179). All four pre-specified lags are shown. This is an observed association, not a causal estimate. observed correlation details
- Correlation of 12-month change in the ECB deposit facility rate and 12-month change in the euro area AAA two-year yield (percentage points): lag 0 months: r = 0.759 (n = 191); lag 3 months: r = 0.504 (n = 191); lag 6 months: r = 0.226 (n = 191); lag 12 months: r = -0.178 (n = 191). All four pre-specified lags are shown. This is an observed association, not a causal estimate. observed correlation details
- Correlation of 12-month change in the Brent crude price (US dollars) and the euro area HICP annual rate: lag 0 months: r = 0.375 (n = 262); lag 3 months: r = 0.476 (n = 262); lag 6 months: r = 0.543 (n = 262); lag 12 months: r = 0.45 (n = 262). All four pre-specified lags are shown. This is an observed association, not a causal estimate. observed correlation details
- Correlation of 12-month change in the European natural gas price (US dollars) and the euro area HICP annual rate: lag 0 months: r = 0.406 (n = 262); lag 3 months: r = 0.588 (n = 262); lag 6 months: r = 0.719 (n = 262); lag 12 months: r = 0.779 (n = 262). All four pre-specified lags are shown. This is an observed association, not a causal estimate. observed correlation details